Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK
|Starts:||15:00 31 Oct 2017|
|Ends:||16:30 31 Oct 2017|
|What is it:||Seminar|
|Organiser:||School of Social Sciences|
|Who is it for:||University staff, Adults, Alumni, Current University students, General public|
|Speaker:||Dr Ben Lauderdale|
Join us for this event, which is part of the CMI Afternoon Seminar Series.
Abstract: We describe a strategy for applying multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) methods to pre-election polling. Using a combination of contemporaneous polling, census data, past election polling, past election results, as well as other sources of information, we are able to construct probabilistic, internally consistent estimates of national vote and the sub-national electoral districts that determine seats or electoral votes in many electoral systems. We report on the performance of three applications of the general framework conducted and publicly released in advance of the 2016 UK Referendum on EU Membership, the 2016 US Presidential Election, and the 2017 UK General Election.
Tea/coffee and cakes from 2.45
All welcome. No registration necessary.
The Cathie Marsh Institute (CMI) provides a focal point at The University of Manchester for the application of quantitative methods in interdisciplinary social science research in order to generate a world class research environment.
Dr Ben Lauderdale
Role: Associate Professor in Research Methodology
Organisation: London School of Economics
Travel and Contact Information
CMI Seminar Room, 2.07,
Humanities Bridgeford Street