BEGIN:VCALENDAR
PRODID:-//Columba Systems Ltd//NONSGML CPNG/SpringViewer/ICal Output/3.3-
 M3//EN
VERSION:2.0
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260128T170438Z
DTSTART:20260622T140000Z
DTEND:20260622T153000Z
SUMMARY:Manchester Online Seminars on Evidential Pluralism: Simulating Ex
 pertise-Based Inference.
UID:{http://www.columbasystems.com/customers/uom/gpp/eventid/}e1jr-mky9zh
 9c-9fk0r
DESCRIPTION:The reliability of causal inference based on a physician’s ex
 pertise has been a matter of debate. In recent work\, Tabatabaei Ghomi a
 nd Stegenga developed a model to simulate such inferences in the context
  of medicine\, evaluating a range of conditions under which a physician’
 s inferences about the effects of a drug are reliable or unreliable (202
 5). Their main result was that such inferences are not reliable if a dis
 ease has some placebo-responsiveness or some natural course of improveme
 nt. That model was based on several idealisations\, which raises the pos
 sibility that their results were in part an artifact of those idealisati
 ons. Here\, we advance their model by incorporating three key cognitive 
 features of inference-makers: a capacity to modulate their inferences ba
 sed on background knowledge about the disease being treated\, a capacity
  to take into account their prior confidence in an intervention\, and a 
 liability to confirmation bias. Our results yield novel insights that ex
 tend and refine those from the original model.\n\nAll welcome! Please re
 gister for a meeting link from the MOSEP webpage (under More Information
 ).
STATUS:TENTATIVE
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
CLASS:PUBLIC
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR