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METHOD:PUBLISH
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260306T172649Z
DTSTART:20260225T170000Z
DTEND:20260225T180000Z
SUMMARY:MET Seminar - Stefan Trautmann (Heidelberg\, Tilburg)
UID:{http://www.columbasystems.com/customers/uom/gpp/eventid/}s1pu-mm1a4x
 rb-puvrjg
DESCRIPTION:Title: A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflatio
 n expectations\n\nAuthors:  Olga Goldfayn-Franka\, Pascal Kieren\, Stefa
 n Trautmann\n\nAbstract: Economists widely rely on measures of inflation
  expectations and uncertainty elicited via density forecasts. This appro
 ach\, which asks respondents to assign probabilities to pre-specified ra
 nges\, has proven highly informative\, but also faced criticism in recen
 t periods of elevated and volatile inflation. We propose a new method to
  elicit the full distribution of inflation expectations\, which is roote
 d in decision theory and can be implemented in standard surveys. In two 
 large surveys and a laboratory experiment\, we demonstrate that the prop
 osed method leads to well-defined expectations that fulfil both subjecti
 ve and objective quality criteria. The method is neither perceived as mo
 re difficult nor does it take more time to complete compared to the curr
 ent standard. In contrast to density forecasts\, the method is robust to
  differences in the state of the economy and thus allows comparisons acr
 oss time and across countries. The method is portable and can be applied
  to elicit different macroeconomic expectations.\n\nContact: sophie.kreu
 tzkamp@manchester.ac.uk
STATUS:TENTATIVE
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
CLASS:PUBLIC
LOCATION:Williamson_4.08 Seminar Room \, Williamson Building\, Manchester
 
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