Christian Rohrbeck - Simulating flood event sets using extremal principal components (- Online)
| Dates: | 18 January 2023 |
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| Times: | 14:00 - 15:00 |
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| What is it: | Seminar |
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| Organiser: | Department of Mathematics |
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| Who is it for: | University staff, External researchers, Current University students |
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| Speaker: | Christian Rohrbeck |
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Christian Rohrbeck, Lecturer in Statistics at the Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath is our speaker for the Statistics seminar series.
Title: Simulating flood event sets using extremal principal components
Abstract: Hazard event sets, a collection of synthetic extreme events over a given period, are important for catastrophe modelling. In this talk, we consider generating event sets of extreme river flow for northern England and southern Scotland, a region which has been particularly affected by severe flooding over the past 20 years.
We start by analysing historical extreme river flow across 45 gauges, located within the study region, using the concept of extremal principal components. We then introduce a framework which models the distribution of the extremal principal components in order to generate synthetic events of extreme river flow. The generative framework is dimension-reducing in that it distinctly handles the principal components based on their contribution to describing the nature of extreme river flow across the study region. At the end of talk we outline current research directions regarding the application of extremal principal components.
Venue: https://zoom.us/j/91529971272
Speaker
Christian Rohrbeck
Organisation: University of Bath
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