CMI Afternoon Seminar: Dynamic Bayesian Adjustment of Anticipatory (Current-time) Covariates: Disentangling Causation and Misclassification - Prof Gebrenegus Ghilagaber
|Dates:||23 October 2018|
|Times:||15:00 - 16:15|
|What is it:||Seminar|
|Organiser:||School of Social Sciences|
|Who is it for:||University staff, Adults, Alumni, Current University students, General public|
|Speaker:||Professor Gebrenegus Ghilagaber|
Speaker: Professor Gebrenegus Ghilagaber, Head of the Department of Statistics, Stockholm University, Sweden
Anticipatory covariates, such as educational level and social class, are variables whose values refer to what is attained at the time of survey. Such variables are common in retrospective surveys and are often used as explanatory variables in investigations of behavior, like marriage or divorce, in life segments that have occurred before the survey. This causes problems because the procedure does not follow the temporal order of events. In this study, we propose a dynamic Bayesian modelling approach that allows effects of the anticipatory covariate to vary over time. The issues are illustrated with data on the effects of anticipatory educational level on divorce risks among Swedish men. Results show that failure to adjust for the anticipatory nature of education leads to overestimation of the relative risks of divorce among those with higher education (relative to the baseline group). More importantly, the degree of overestimation varies across duration of marriage.
Joint work with Parfait Munezero, Department of Statistics, Stockholm University, Sweden.
Tea/coffee and cakes from 2.45.
Join us for this event, which is part of the CMI Afternoon Seminar Series. All welcome. No registration necessary.
The Cathie Marsh Institute for Social Research (CMI) provides a focal point at The University of Manchester for the application of quantitative methods in interdisciplinary social science research in order to generate a world class research environment.
Professor Gebrenegus Ghilagaber
Role: Head of the Department of Statistics
Organisation: Stockholm University, Sweden
Travel and Contact Information
CMI Seminar Room, 2.07
Humanities Bridgeford Street