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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20240307T141713Z
DTSTART:20240313T130000Z
DTEND:20240313T140000Z
SUMMARY:Emma Davies -- Applications of branching processes to low-prevale
 nce disease dynamics [ONLINE]
UID:{http://www.columbasystems.com/customers/uom/gpp/eventid/}j2mp-lrov24
 7p-nqjz9l
DESCRIPTION:Join us for this seminar by Emma Davies (Warwick) as part of 
 the North West Seminar Series in Mathematical Biology and Data Sciences\
 n\nThe talk will be hosted by the University of Liverpool and available 
 to watch via zoom. Please contact carl.whitfield@manchester.ac.uk or mdo
 mijan@liverpool.ac.uk for the link\, or sign up to the mailing list.\n\n
 Title: Applications of branching processes to low-prevalence disease dyn
 amics\nAbstract: At low prevalence\, disease dynamics are inherently sto
 chastic\, making mean-field approaches infeasible for capturing emergenc
 e and elimination\; branching processes are one tool that can be used to
  model these dynamics. I will demonstrate applications of branching proc
 ess methods in two contrasting scenarios that have qualitative similarit
 ies: disease emergence\, drawing on an example from the COVID-19 pandemi
 c\, and disease elimination\, framed in the context of the macro-parasit
 ic disease lymphatic filariasis. For COVID-19\, I will talk about work t
 hat arose as part of the UK COVID-19 modelling response following discus
 sions around the efficacy of contact tracing\, using stochastic simulati
 ons to demonstrate the vital importance of adherence. For lymphatic fila
 riasis\, I will show how we used a more theoretical branching process mo
 del to investigate the evidence base for elimination thresholds and how 
 uncertainty in key parameters could impact the ultimate extinction proba
 bility.\n\nTo subscribe to the mailing list for this event series\, plea
 se send an e-mail with the phrase “subscribe math-lifesci-seminar” in th
 e message body to listserv@listserv.manchester.ac.uk
STATUS:TENTATIVE
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
CLASS:PUBLIC
LOCATION:Online
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