Guy Michaels (LSE)
| Dates: | 23 March 2017 |
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| Times: | 16:15 - 17:45 |
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| What is it: | Seminar |
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| Organiser: | School of Social Sciences |
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| Speaker: | Guy Michaels |
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Title: Flooded Cities
Abstract
Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks?
We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most
common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than
500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people. This paper analyzes the effect of
large scale floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40
countries, from 2003-2008. We conduct our analysis using spatially detailed inundation
maps and night lights data spanning the globe’s urban areas. We find that low elevation
areas are about 3-4 times more likely to be hit by large floods than other areas, and yet
they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometer. When cities are hit by large
floods, the low elevation areas also sustain more damage, but like the rest of the flooded
cities they recover rapidly, and economic activity does not move to safer areas. Only in more
recently populated urban areas, flooded areas show a larger and more persistent decline in
economic activity. Our findings have important policy implications for aid, development
and urban planning in a world with rapid urbanization and rising sea levels.
Speaker
Guy Michaels
Role: Associate Professor of Economics
Organisation: London School of Economics
Travel and Contact Information
Find event
2.218
University Place
Manchester
