AI-Fun Seminar | Rishideep Roy: Forecasting Election Results Through Multinomial Model with Randomly Varying Probabilities
| Dates: | 10 April 2024 |
|---|
| Times: | 10:30 - 11:30 |
|---|
| What is it: | Seminar |
|---|
| Organiser: | Faculty of Science and Engineering |
|---|
| Who is it for: | University staff, External researchers, Current University students |
|---|
| Speaker: | Rishideep Roy |
|---|
|
The Manchester Centre for AI Fundamentals is hosting a series of seminars featuring expert researchers working in the fundamentals of AI.
Rishideep Roy is a Lecturer in Statistics at the University of Essex.
Title:
Forecasting Election Results Through Multinomial Model with Randomly Varying Probabilities
Abstract:
We consider a sequence of multinomial data, with multiple classes for each trial. We assume that the probabilities associated with these classes vary randomly over time. We show that under suitably chosen prior distribution on these probabilities, there is posterior consistency. We further consider an application of this method in calling elections, with voting data coming in multiple rounds.
Bio:
Dr. Rishideep Roy completed his Bachelor's and Master's in Statistics from the Indian Statistical Institute. He completed his Ph.D. from the Statistics department at the University of Chicago. For his PhD, he worked on extreme value theory, focused on Gaussian processes - which has wide application in areas ranging from Finance to Astrophysics. He has also worked on Interacting Particle Systems, Reliability Theory, Distribution Theory, and Circular Statistics. He is currently a lecturer in statistics at the University of Essex, having previously worked at the Indian Institute of Management Bengaluru, India.
Travel and Contact Information
Find event
2.220
University Place
Manchester
