This seminar will present a series of working draft chapters for the prospective 2015 British Election Study book, from the BES team. We will provide original insights into how citizens make their electoral choices, offering both an analysis of the outcome of the 2015 General Election and a more general framework for understanding political change. Through understanding the evolving nature of the British electorate, we reveal how long-term secular changes in politics and society create the circumstances for political change, and how this potential for political change may be realised through contingent political events and agency. We show how Britons made their vote choices in the 2015 election and demonstrate the role of political events and context on those choices, and on the eventual result. This event is brought to you by BES and Democracy and Elections, the hub for electoral politics research at The University of Manchester.
The British Election Study 2015 is managed by a consortium of The University of Manchester, The University of Oxford and The University of Nottingham. The Scientific Leadership Team is comprised of Professors Ed Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Hermann Schmitt, Geoff Evans and Cees van der Eijk. The team is supported by researchers Dr Jon Mellon and Chris Prosser.
To register, visit: https://voters-in-context.eventbrite.co.uk
2.00. Arrival and refreshments
Introduction: Voters in Context - The 2015 British Election Study
Long-term trends and short-term shocks: understanding the evolving context of British politics
Geoff Evans and Jon Mellon
Evolving boundaries of electoral change: how the long-term evolution of social and political factors transform the parameters of electoral competition and its outcomes in Britain
Cees Van der Eijk and Hermann Schmitt
3.15-3.30 Refreshment break
The Ongoing Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on Vote Choices in 2015
Jane Green and Chris Prosser
When voting behaviour and party support collide: how the Scottish Independence Referendum cost Labour.
Ed Fieldhouse and Chris Prosser
4.00-4.30 How Coalition Government Leads to Minor Party Voting (in the absence of proportional representation)
Jane Green, Ed Fieldhouse and Chris Prosser
4.30-5.00 Wrap up and General Discussion