Emma Davies -- Applications of branching processes to low-prevalence disease dynamics [ONLINE]
| Dates: | 13 March 2024 |
|---|
| Times: | 13:00 - 14:00 |
|---|
| What is it: | Seminar |
|---|
| Organiser: | Department of Mathematics |
|---|
| Who is it for: | University staff, External researchers, Current University students |
|---|
| Speaker: | Emma Davies |
|---|
|
Join us for this seminar by Emma Davies (Warwick) as part of the North West Seminar Series in Mathematical Biology and Data Sciences
The talk will be hosted by the University of Liverpool and available to watch via zoom. Please contact carl.whitfield@manchester.ac.uk or mdomijan@liverpool.ac.uk for the link, or sign up to the mailing list.
Title: Applications of branching processes to low-prevalence disease dynamics
Abstract: At low prevalence, disease dynamics are inherently stochastic, making mean-field approaches infeasible for capturing emergence and elimination; branching processes are one tool that can be used to model these dynamics. I will demonstrate applications of branching process methods in two contrasting scenarios that have qualitative similarities: disease emergence, drawing on an example from the COVID-19 pandemic, and disease elimination, framed in the context of the macro-parasitic disease lymphatic filariasis. For COVID-19, I will talk about work that arose as part of the UK COVID-19 modelling response following discussions around the efficacy of contact tracing, using stochastic simulations to demonstrate the vital importance of adherence. For lymphatic filariasis, I will show how we used a more theoretical branching process model to investigate the evidence base for elimination thresholds and how uncertainty in key parameters could impact the ultimate extinction probability.
To subscribe to the mailing list for this event series, please send an e-mail with the phrase “subscribe math-lifesci-seminar” in the message body to listserv@listserv.manchester.ac.uk
Speaker
Emma Davies
Role: Lecturer
Organisation: University of Warwick
Travel and Contact Information
