Optimizing the trade-offs between health outcomes and the economy under Covid-19: a multisectoral economic-epidemiological model
| Dates: | 17 February 2021 |
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| Times: | 11:00 - 12:30 |
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| What is it: | Seminar |
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| Organiser: | Alliance Manchester Business School |
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| Speaker: | Professor Peter Smith, Dr. David Haw |
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Join us at the Institute for Health Policy and Organisation (IHPO) seminar series on 17th February.
Zoom Recording: https://youtu.be/VLMTAXeW7Tc
Abstract:
We present an economic-epidemiological model that calculates the outcomes (in terms of GDP, employment, infections, hospitalizations, and deaths) of a wide range of alternative Covid-19 control strategies. The intention is to determine which economic sectors to allow to function (partially or fully) over a six month period so as to maximize economic output in the presence of Covid-19. A range of constraints to economic activity are applied. These include the need to keep certain essential services functioning (including health care and education), at least to some extent, and limits to the availability of intensive care hospital beds. On the economic side, the model disaggregates the economy into discrete sectors consistent with national accounts. Given the need to maintain supply chains for sectors that remain open, we model economic interactions between sectors using Input-Output tables. Disease transmission is modelled using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model of Covid-19 transmission that projects the spread of infection as sectors are opened and closed to varying degrees, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in risks of infection between co-workers, in the community, and on the interface between these groups (for example amongst customers). The model is illustrated using data from the United Kingdom, yielding policy recommendations for securing an optimal balance between economic activity, hospital capacity, infections and other important policy outcomes.
Authors: David Haw, Paula Christen, Giovanni Forchini, Sumali Bajaj, Katharina Hauck and Peter C. Smith
Speakers
Professor Peter Smith
Organisation: Imperial College Business School
Dr. David Haw
Organisation: School of Public Health, Imperial College
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