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Andrew Titman - Testing the Markov assumption in general multi-state models

Dates:27 November 2019
Times:14:00 - 14:00
What is it:Seminar
Organiser:Department of Mathematics
Who is it for:University staff, External researchers, Current University students
Speaker:Andrew Titman
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  • Department of Mathematics

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  • In category "Seminar"
  • In group "(Maths) Probability and statistics"
  • In group "(Maths) Maths seminar series"
  • By Department of Mathematics

Andrew Titman (Lancaster University) joins us for the Statistics seminar series.

Recently there has been interest in the development of estimators of the transition probabilities for right-censored data that are robust to departures from the Markov assumption. The landmark Aalen-Johansen (LMAJ) 1 estimator is robust to non-Markov processes, but this robustness comes at the cost of a loss of efficiency compared to the standard Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimator, making it important to identify when it is necessary to use LMAJ.

Three approaches to testing are considered; i) A simple method based on including time of entry into the state as a covariate in a Cox model for each transition intensity ii) Use of the stratified version of the Commenges-Andersen test 2 for a univariate frailty, and iii) A novel class of tests based on families of log-rank statistics, where patients are grouped by their state occupancy at landmark times.

All three approaches can be applied to both non-parametric and semi-parametric model. The performance of the test is investigated through simulation in a variety of settings and by application to datasets relating to liver cirrhosis and sleep behaviour.

1 Putter, H., Spitoni, C. (2018). Non-parametric estimation of transition probabilities in non-Markov multi-state models: the landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator. Statistical Methods in Medical Research. 27: 2081-2092. 2 Commenges, D. and Andersen, P.K. (1995). Score test of homogeneity for survival data. Lifetime Data Analysis, 1: 145-156.

Speaker

Andrew Titman

Organisation: Lancaster University

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Frank Adams 2
Alan Turing Building
Manchester

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Jianxin Pan

01613063684

georgi.boshnakov@manchester.ac.uk

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