CMIST Afternoon Seminar: Estimating the Uncertainty in the Local Authority Mid-year Population Estimates
|Dates:||26 April 2016|
|Times:||16:00 - 17:30|
|What is it:||Seminar|
|Organiser:||School of Social Sciences|
|Speaker:||Professor Peter W.F. Smith|
Each year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces mid-year population estimates for each local authority. In the years following the Census, these are produced by adding births, immigrants (from outside the UK) and internal in-migrants (from within the UK) and subtracting deaths, emigrants and internal out-migrants. While births and deaths are accurately measured, the other components of change are estimated by using primarily the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for international migration and the GP Patient Register (PR) for internal migration.
In this presentation, I will describe some of the work I have been undertaking with the ONS over the last six years to estimate the uncertainty in these components and hence in the mid-year population estimates. For internal migration, models are built for the errors in the PR based on discrepancies between the PR and the Census. For international migration, the error distributions are estimated by bootstrapping the IPS.
Professor Peter W.F. Smith
Role: Professor of Social Statistics
Organisation: University of Southampton
Travel and Contact Information
CMIST Seminar Room: 2.07
Humanities Bridgeford Street